Rainstorms able to induce flash floods in a Mediterranean-climate region (Calabria, southern Italy)

Abstract. Heavy rainstorms often induce flash flooding, one of the natural disasters most responsible for damage to man-made infrastructures and loss of lives, also adversely affecting the opportunities for socio-economic development of Mediterranean countries. The frequently dramatic damage of flash floods are often detected, with sufficient accuracy, by post-event surveys, but rainfall causing them are still only roughly characterized. With the aim of improving the understanding of the temporal structure and spatial distribution of heavy rainstorms in the Mediterranean context, a statistical analysis was carried out in Calabria (southern Italy) concerning rainstorms that mainly induced flash floods, but also shallow landslides and debris flows. Thus, a method is proposed – based on the overcoming of heuristically predetermined threshold values of cumulated rainfall, maximum intensity, and kinetic energy of the rainfall event – to select and characterize the rainstorms able to induce flash floods in the Mediterranean-climate countries. Therefore, the obtained (heavy) rainstorms were automatically classified and studied according to their structure in time, localization, and extension. Rainfall-runoff watershed models can consequently benefit from the enhanced identification of design storms, with a realistic time structure integrated with the results of the spatial analysis. A survey of flash flood events recorded in the last decades provides a preliminary validation of the method proposed to identify the heavy rainstorms and synthetically describe their characteristics. The notable size of the employed sample, including data with a very detailed resolution in time that relate to several rain gauges well-distributed throughout the region, gives robustness to the obtained results

GA SAKe : forecasting landslide activations by a genetic-algorithms-based hydrological model

Abstract. GASAKe is a new hydrological model aimed at forecasting the triggering of landslides. The model is based on genetic algorithms and allows one to obtain thresholds for the prediction of slope failures using dates of landslide activations and rainfall series. It can be applied to either single landslides or a set of similar slope movements in a homogeneous environment. Calibration of the model provides families of optimal, discretized solutions (kernels) that maximize the fitness function. Starting from the kernels, the corresponding mobility functions (i.e., the predictive tools) can be obtained through convolution with the rain series. The base time of the kernel is related to the magnitude of the considered slope movement, as well as to the hydro-geological complexity of the site. Generally, shorter base times are expected for shallow slope instabilities compared to larger-scale phenomena. Once validated, the model can be applied to estimate the timing of future landslide activations in the same study area, by employing measured or forecasted rainfall series. Examples of application of GASAKe to a medium-size slope movement (the Uncino landslide at San Fili, in Calabria, southern Italy) and to a set of shallow landslides (in the Sorrento Peninsula, Campania, southern Italy) are discussed. In both cases, a successful calibration of the model has been achieved, despite unavoidable uncertainties concerning the dates of occurrence of the slope movements. In particular, for the Sorrento Peninsula case, a fitness of 0.81 has been obtained by calibrating the model against 10 dates of landslide activation; in the Uncino case, a fitness of 1 (i.e., neither missing nor false alarms) has been achieved using five activations. As for temporal validation, the experiments performed by considering further dates of activation have also proved satisfactory. In view of early-warning applications for civil protection, the capability of the model to simulate the occurrences of the Uncino landslide has been tested by means of a progressive, self-adaptive procedure. Finally, a sensitivity analysis has been performed by taking into account the main parameters of the model. The obtained results are quite promising, given the high performance of the model against different types of slope instabilities characterized by several historical activations. Nevertheless, further refinements are still needed for application to landslide risk mitigation within early-warning and decision-support systems

Climate Change Effects on Slope Stability

Global warming is taking place and there is no doubt that the stability of natural and artificial slopes is influenced by climate change. In this context, the present study intends to show, as more quantitatively as possible, the effects of climate change on slopes stability. The analysis was developed considering a non-static approach suitable for meteorological phenomena which are expected to change in the next years. In the analysis a statistical method was combined with a mechanical one: the forecasts of the intensity growth of heavy precipitation were used, as well as the physical laws for describing the response of groundwater table to these rainfall events and the resulting slopes stability. A case study located in Monchiero (Cn), Italy, was used as a test for the analysis and the forecasts described above

Rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Calabria, southern Italy

Abstract. In many areas, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides. Determining the rainfall conditions responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to saving lives and properties. In a long-term national project for the definition of rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy, we compiled a catalogue of 186 rainfall events that resulted in 251 shallow landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, from January 1996 to September 2011. Landslides were located geographically using Google Earth®, and were given a mapping and a temporal accuracy. We used the landslide information, and sub-hourly rainfall measurements obtained from two complementary networks of rain gauges, to determine cumulated event vs. rainfall duration (ED) thresholds for Calabria. For this purpose, we adopted an existing method used to prepare rainfall thresholds and to estimate their associated uncertainties in central Italy. The regional thresholds for Calabria were found to be nearly identical to previous ED thresholds for Calabria obtained using a reduced set of landslide information, and slightly higher than the ED thresholds obtained for central Italy. We segmented the regional catalogue of rainfall events with landslides in Calabria into lithology, soil regions, rainfall zones, and seasonal periods. The number of events in each subdivision was insufficient to determine reliable thresholds, but allowed for preliminary conclusions about the role of the environmental factors in the rainfall conditions responsible for shallow landslides in Calabria. We further segmented the regional catalogue based on administrative subdivisions used for hydro-meteorological monitoring and operational flood forecasting, and we determined separate ED thresholds for the Tyrrhenian and the Ionian coasts of Calabria. We expect the ED rainfall thresholds for Calabria to be used in regional and national landslide warning systems. The thresholds can also be used for landslide hazard and risk assessments, and for erosion and landscape evolution studies, in the study area and in similar physiographic regions in the Mediterranean area

Test with high-energy and high-intensity proton beam on ATLAS silicon detectors towards HL-LHC

The ATLAS silicon tracker was designed to sustain a high level of dose integrated over several years of LHC operations. The radiation tolerance should nevertheless guarantee the survival of the detector in the case of accidental beam loss. In 2006, an experiment performed on an ATLAS Pixel module established that they are able to sustain beam losses in the order of 1.5 × 1010 protons/cm2 with a minimal or no performance degradation. Recently, a new experiment was performed with a higher-intensity and -energy proton beam on two IBL Pixel modules and one ITk strip in the HiRadMat area at CERN. Preliminary results are presented along with perspectives of 2018 test beams

The Micro-Groove Detector

We introduce the Micro-Groove Detector (MGD), a new type of position-sensitive gas proportional counter produced using advanced printed circuit board (PCB) technology. The MGD is based on a thin kapt on foil, clad with gold-plated copper on both sides. An array of micro-strips at a typical pitch of 200um is defined on the top metal layer. Using as a protection mask the metal left after the patter ning, charge amplifying micro-grooves are etched into the kapton layer. These end on a second micro-strip pattern which is defined on the bottom metal plane. The two arrays of micro-strips can have a n arbitrary relative orientation and so can be used for read-out to obtain 2-D positional information. First results from our systematic assessment of this device are reported: gas gain > 15000, rat e capability above 10^6mm-2s-1, energy resolution 22% at 5.4 keV, no significant charging or aging effects up to 5mC/cm, full primary charge collection efficiency even at high drift fields

The WELL Detector

We introduce the WELL detector, a new type of position-sensitive gas proportional counter produced using advanced printed circuit board (PCB) technology. The WELL is based on a thin kapton foil, copp erclad on both sides. Charge amplifying micro-wells are etched into the first metal and kapton layers. These end on a micro-strip pattern which is defined on the second metal plane. The array of micr o-strips is used for read-out to obtain 1-D positional information. First results from our systematic assessment of this device are reported

A Two-Stage, High Gain Micro-strip Detector

A two stage position-sensitive gas proportional counter has been constructed by tightly coupling a Gas Electron Multiplier (GEM) with a Micro-Groove Detector (MGD). The GEM was used as the first amplifying stage and was optimised to transmit close to 100~\% of the primary charge even at very high drift fields (10~kV/cm). Very narrow GEM--MGD seperations (0--600~$\mu$m) were used so that the active volume of the detector is still very thin (3--3.6~mm) and the required drift field could be maintaine d using an acceptable drift voltage (around 4000~V). Very high combined gains (up to 3~$\times$10$^5$) were obtained with this system. The detector was found to be spark-free in the presence of HIPs (alpha particles) up to gains in excess of 10,000

The CMS Micro-strip Gas Chamber Project: Development of a high resolution tracking detector for harsh radiation environments

Thirty-two large area Micro-Strip Gas Chambers were tested in a high intensity, 350~MeV pion beam at PSI to prove that we had reached a Milestone for the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment. The particle rate was approximately 6 kHz/mm2, distributed over the whole active area of the detectors, and this rate was maintained for a total integrated time of 493 hours. All of the chambers were operated with signal-to-noise values at or above that corresponding to 98 % hit detection efficiency at CMS; the average S/N was 31. No indications of any gain instabilities or ageing effects were observed. In the official 3-week Milestone period, three strips from a total of 16384 were damaged, a result which is twenty times lower than the minimal requirement for CMS. The spark rate of the detectors was very low and decreased with time to an average of one spark per chamber per day. The cathode voltages of 24 of the chambers were increased over a one week period to investigate the behaviour of the detectors at higher gains; the maximum S/N value was 2.4 times that at the normal working point. No significant increase in spark rate or strip loss rate was detected and the chambers operated stably. The detector efficiencies and imaging capabilities were also investigated. The MSGC design features and the assembly and test methodologies that enabled us to achieve these results are reported